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A New England Journal of Medicine scientific article of interest about the persistence of C-19 on surfaces.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0l3kvLNxQd_o4G_MqZiKeLcsxsbe9fNM1kIar8hwOj652ngXUo7eXqZMQ

 

Abstract

 

HCoV-19 (SARS-2) has caused >88,000 reported illnesses with a current case-fatality ratio of ~2%. Here, we investigate the stability of viable HCoV-19 on surfaces and in aerosols in comparison with SARS CoV-1. Overall, stability is very similar between HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1. We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. Both viruses show relatively long viability on stainless steel and polypropylene compared to copper or cardboard: the median half-life estimate for HCoV-19 is around 13 hours on steel and around 16 hours on polypropylene. Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days.

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Where is Monty Python when you need them????

 

Amid all the consternation, hand-wringing (isn't it supposed to be "hand-washing"?), panic-buying, and general dis-function setting in.....I choose to join the ranks of Morgan, Peveka, CCoyle, and Jack12477 in taking a broader, more whimsical approach to this as there certainly are enough of the death & doom squad to fill an O.R.!

Of course, the neighborhood watch had something DIFFERENT in mind for those of us who haven't shown a proper respect for the general panic and dismay:

victim-of-the-spanish-inquisition-everett.jpg.0aa5d2872d7bb9eccdf7a507e02dcab6.jpg

On a more serious side, I am in contact with a retired physician/ship modeler and he & I are exchanging Q & A regarding what he can provide me with his knowledge in answers to my lack of knowledge and thus further my understanding of this current malady. 

I hope everyone stays well and retains a true sense of rationality throughout this situation!

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Hank said:

Where is Monty Python when you need them????

 

Amid all the consternation, hand-wringing (isn't it supposed to be "hand-washing"?), panic-buying, and general dis-function setting in.....I choose to join the ranks of Morgan, Peveka, CCoyle, and Jack12477 in taking a broader, more whimsical approach to this as there certainly are enough of the death & doom squad to fill an O.R.!

Of course, the neighborhood watch had something DIFFERENT in mind for those of us who haven't shown a proper respect for the general panic and dismay:

victim-of-the-spanish-inquisition-everett.jpg.0aa5d2872d7bb9eccdf7a507e02dcab6.jpg

On a more serious side, I am in contact with a retired physician/ship modeler and he & I are exchanging Q & A regarding what he can provide me with his knowledge in answers to my lack of knowledge and thus further my understanding of this current malady. 

I hope everyone stays well and retains a true sense of rationality throughout this situation!

 

 

 

 

 

There is nothing wrong with a bit of humor.  It helps ease the anxiety and get over misfortunes. 

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7 hours ago, DelF said:

An advert in our local travel agency - "Buy 1 week's cruise and get 2 free!"

We got a robocall message saying if we attended a free investment seminar we would have a chance to win a free cruise! 😳 How many takers do you think they got? That outfit needs to fire their entire marketing team!

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I can't really understand the ban travel, not only between US and Europe but also within Europe itself. It's like locking the door after the jewellery has been stolen. The virus is already here/there...

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So, to further the conversation a bit, my friend - the retired doc/model builder just answered a few questions I had asked him and his answers also address a comment made early on in this thread:

1)    In regards to the name “COVID-19” – what exactly does that stand for and is this the 19th strain of a common, mutated virus?

***Stands for Corona Viral Disease 2019

2)    If so, what were the other 18 prior strains and why weren’t they treated in like manner? i.e. – cause for all this widespread fear/panic/etc.

***Not a matter of prior strains, just the year date.

3)    If not, is this particular virus something totally new and “stand alone” in structure and being?

*** It is totally new; WHO & CDC also call it "novel" virus.

 

 

Now, for those who haven't experienced a situation such as currently manifesting itself, who can forget:

Look familiar? Couldn't pass it up!!

 

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13 minutes ago, Egilman said:

And, it non stoppable. it will run it's course, healthy people really have nothing to fear. the people at risk are the elderly and others with compromised immune systems and infants.... Children shrug this off, healthy adults feel like they have a cold then get on with life.... I was watching a tv program discussing this and it effect on airline travel, they had a guest who was telling everyone that if they are on a plane, they need to sit next to a window, why? cause the air doesn't circulate as well near the windows?????  OOOOK!!!! Yeah someone actually on TV telling people that put themselves in a sealed pressurised and air recirculated closed container for a couple of hours won't catch anything if they sit near a window!!!!!

The media was asking the governor of our state if he was going to call out the national guard! The media was asking the president if he was going to ban travel to WA & CA!!!!!

 

How do you seperate the media hype from the facts? 

 

50,000 people die from the flu each and every year in the US alone, they only have 3600 deaths from this WORLDWIDE!!!! where is this response each year over the flu? it is non-existent....

Scientific article quoted above comparing this to SARS? and basing their decision on computer modeling when they really haven't a clue on how many actual infections there are so they are operating their models on guesses.... The Politicians are basing their decision on those guesses.... They keep yakking about creating an immunization for this....  a relative of the common cold virus... if they can create an immuno-virus for this, then why can't they create one for the common cold? (which they have been trying to do for the last 120 years)

 

It's a coronavirus, a new one, a variation of the common cold, it is going to run it's course, there is no cure, there never will be one, and it will be a distant memory in a year....

 

The hype and fear being promulgated worldwide is absolutely incredible.....

 

This is dangerous misinformation. Healthy people are less likely to be severely affected but it is still possible. The disease is, even if we take comparably low mortality rates like on Diamond Princess and South Korea, considerably more lethal than the "normal" flu. It is also very contagious and so far there is no vaccine (which helps to protect medical workers as well as vulnerable groups) and no viable medicine (although there appears to be cause for some optimism in that regard).

To take this disease lightly is to risk getting your medical system overloaded, the results are devastating. This could be seen in Wuhan and currently can be seen in northern Italy where triage procedures had to be implemented. The Chinese as well as the South Koreans, trough monumental but disimilar efforts, seem to have slowed down the spread which gives the medical system time to cope and hopefully lowers overal mortality. One can only hope that Italy as well as all other affected nations manage to do the same.

That a full flu season managed to do more damage than two or three weeks of full Covid 19 outbreaks shouldn't be suprising to anyone.

If the gods are good and the people reasonable and cautious then perhaps we will be spared the result of an uninterrupted full scale Corona pandemic.

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Its really sad the I got mine screw you attitude that is so prevalent today.

In Wal-Mart 6am, people going crazy swiping armloads of canned goods filling several baskets one family. and elderly couple tried to by a jar of mayo and a jerk snatched it from them. I hollered at him showed him my badge and advised he could be placed under arrest for menacing or give it back and he could move on. (He did) thankfully he didn't look to close it was my retirement shield from 30 years ago.

 

I purchased my bananas an left. Don't these fools realize stores are not going to close.

 

I come from a different time Sybile and I went thru some major Hurricanes house flooded 7 times over a 30 year period, she was a paramedic (after Frederick and the loss of our bridge for 3 years she was in charge of medical control our Island Doctor working in Mobile during the week. My duties with the Alabama Marine Police seem to quadruple plus this was before life-flight all med transports by boat or C.G. Helo Mobile has a training Center. For 3 years no bridge had no permanent power 6 months. The National Guard brought in 2 massive generators. Appliances burned out. In a nutshell  and not to be dramatic, Islanders helped each other for 3 years, going to mainland buying groceries for neighbors, pitching in to clean up debris and neighbors property, The first month, 400 residents pooled all their frozen food at the Isle Dauphine Club residents provided generators and gas to run them, and so there was an Island Kitchen to feed residents 3 meals a  day no one complained or griped folks shared cleaning and cooking. It got to the point we would have been happy if they had not built the bridge back.

Sybile and I were stretched 24/7 neighbors pitched in cleaned our property, pulled our carpet roofed our house etc, we responded in kind when we could. You just did it no one had to ask.

 

Its refreshing to see folks in communities hit by natural disasters do the same thing. But this corno virus thing has turned a lot people into me first you last.

 

Problem is to many apocalypse zombie movies. Alabama has an open carry law a lot of folks openly displaying weapons that they usually would not, not worth being shot over a can of beans.

 

Enough of my babbling just a different time.:cheers:

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This is a new thing, no one knows much yet. Info comes from the countries that have been already hit by this and are a few weeks ahead. It is estimated that the UK will be where Italy is now in about 3 weeks time. US is undoubtedly going through the flat part of the epidemic curve-it will start rising sharply.

 

European countries are shutting down one after the other and the measures taken are unprecedented-extreme even for war time. The  financial implications are huge. 

 

I rushed to get a hair cut yesterday before my barber shuts down!

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Egilman, you are quite right when it concerns governments, and about the present hype too. Peopel tend to overreact often, hence the hoarding.

 

2 hours ago, Egilman said:

It's a coronavirus, a new one, a variation of the common cold, it is going to run it's course, there is no cure, there never will be one, and it will be a distant memory in a year....

 

It seems here in the Netherlands they have found something to work with. It is based on what had been used on an earlier strain, an antibody which deals with the infection. It seems promissing, but results are uncertain as it has not yet been sufficiently tested on humans, which is currently in progress.

 

Right, maybe they can mix me a coctail ... shaken, not stirred. and one of those green blobs in it

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Addendum, 

 

People need to remember RE: panic buying its not like a weather related natural disaster flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes where your stores, pharmacies, and other support business are destroyed, Tomorrow stores will be open you will be able to buy groceries and what ever else you need, both my wife and I have immune issues but you have to live. Feel sorry for those who cannot look at this as a temporary inconvenience yes one where you have to exercise caution but don't forget to live and the sun will still shine, unless it rains.;)

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I’ve worked in the health field for over 40 years, on a hands on basis, and I see this as the latest “crisis”. It is what it is, and most of us will get through it. Now I fit in the “at risk group”.  Such is life. What happens is going to happen. I was in the supermarket today and was amazed with how people are panic buying. If this does one thing, it definitely brings out the best of people and the worst of people. It’s nice to see the former outweighs the latter. It does bring out a sense of community. Maybe that’s something we need every once in a while.

 

Kurt

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I have deleted several unhelpful posts.  While there are differing opinions on this situation the reality is that there is a virus out there that is causing world wide problems, most especially for older citizens and those with immune problems.

 

Keep up the discussion if you feel that you'd like to, but please keep it polite and relevant.  If there continue to be unhelpful statements made the thread will have to be locked.

 

John

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14 hours ago, Backer said:

Flanders' Modelling Festival organized by IPMS Antwerp (Belgium).   Canceled because of corona.

http://www.ipms.be/New-IPMS/Calendar/Calendar.html

 

For me the most important modeling event of the year  :(.

 

And corona strikes a second time.

Just canceled our holiday to Tenerife (Canary Islands) for one week
We were leaving tomorrow. But the possibility that we could no longer return to Belgium had become too dangerous.


At the moment, health is more important than luxury.

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I was thinking about what John wrote about the hording buying and how the replacement volume will exceed the usual quantities.  Then I flashed on how everything is bar code scanned.  The want list is done automatically.  So this will be down to warehouse stock (and truck capacity)- are they also just in time?   For TP, it gets down to Koch Bros and other paper companies - are they just in time?  It would be foolish for them to do more than run at max.  Gearing up for higher demand as a new continuing level would be a mistake.  It is not like this virus causes the runs for the rest of your life.  It is not like TP has a real expiration date,  but maybe some things that do expire have been horded.  Fresher stock on the shelves, when they take up the slack.

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14 hours ago, Hank said:

And this from Stanford Hospital Board Internal Message:

The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he/she is infected? By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and it's too late. Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning. Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection. In critical time, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air

 

 

This is a serious piece of misinformation, including the water-drinking advice. I ask the mods to check the info and to remove the post.

 

Unless Hank is joking of course in which case I missed the joke and I apologise.

 

Cheers

Pieter

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Pieter,

I actually got that from a physician/ship modeler friend of mine yesterday and he's not one to joke about things, etc. If it were to be incorrect, I certainly apologize and have removed that statement from my original post.

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Has anyone else's admiral cut back on the "honey-do" lists which require hours of driving and standing in stores on the weekends?  I had more modelling time to myself yesterday than I've had in years.  At this rate, I'll be able to finish the gratings on my Nina, weather my ship-in-a-bottle, and actually re-start the Syren/Triton projects.  That's quite a silver lining.. 

 

This pandemic might turn out to be a boon for companies which sell models/crafts/etc..   

 

Alan

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Just now, knightyo said:

Has anyone else's admiral cut back on the "honey-do" lists which require hours of driving and standing in stores on the weekends?  I had more modelling time to myself yesterday than I've had in years.  At this rate, I'll be able to finish the gratings on my Nina, weather my ship-in-a-bottle, and actually re-start the Syren/Triton projects.  That's quite a silver lining.. 

 

This pandemic might turn out to be a boon for companies which sell models/crafts/etc..   

 

Alan

Yes! A blessing in disguise.

 

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I see they have started to deploy the National Guard in a number of states, including my own. 

This is worth watching to see what develops from here. After all, a national emergency has been declared so it should not come as a total surprise.

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Actually, my modeling activities have grown not quite exponentially, but are decidedly more involved. There appears to be a lot of medical experts here also.... (although it is clear that there are many "experts" who are not all in agreement on this "emergency"...... But since so many experts have taken exception to others professional opinions, deleting of posts of those opinions has happened. So before the rest of the opposing opinion posts are deleted I deleted the remainder of mine myself.... 

 

And I apologise for any dissention I may have caused.......

 

Lots of strong personalities here.....

 

And sadly to say I'm reconsidering participation here, lots of great people and wonderful information, the little bit I can offer is probably already covered by some "expert" somewhere. So I will go back to lurk mode while I consider my options. again, I apologise for upsetting the applecart by offering a viewpoint that is outside the mainstream of government medical thought.

 

So, please accept this humble apology, and carry on with the wonderful builds and information sharing....

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Well,today it was announced that all shops excluding food stores and chemists are closed until April 30th here. Also included are pubs,restaurants cinemas,theatres and all sport and recreation facilities. Senior citizens homes have banned all visitors,family or otherwise. The admiral said she heard the Swiss German border is to be closed from 6am tomorrow. This is going to cause a lot of job losses in the short term methinks. Glad I'm retired.  

 

Dave :dancetl6:

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None of this in the UK

 

Schools are open, hospitals function almost as normal, my daughter's Tae Kwo Do and swimming classes scheduled to go ahead as normal. All shops are open. Hand shakes are discouraged.

Cases are increasing at the same fast rate as in the rest of Europe

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For my part, I am a 70year old doctor.I decided today to stop seeing patients (I can, as I work in partnership with my daughter, and can do most work online and digitally) . Nobody really knows the future, but probably 60-80% of public will be effected. The young are OK (unless otherwise unhealthy) but over 70's possibly have a mortality of 10% plus. The possibility of infection rises exponentially with the number of cases in the area and level of contact. Its almost impossible to diagnose clinically especially in earl stages or with the mild,younger cases. Therefore its common sense to severely restrict potential contacts including physical surfaces. This is not to scare you but to minimise risks and at the end of the day get to finish those projects already underway and planned. That's right- remember what's important in life. It is also to be noted how a common interest such as our hobby, transcends differences and division on our tiny planet. Keep well, don't be overly distracted especially while using a sharp blade or powertool .

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