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Posted
4 hours ago, Javlin said:

Craig don't think you guys will dodge this one best scenario will be if goes S of ya Cat4 now good luck and God Bless!:(

There are variables. One involves how soon the cool jet stream impacts the system turn to a more southerly track that takes it partially over the Yucatan Peninsula. If that happens it could significantly change the storm intensity as it makes a final approach to the west coast of Fla.

we will know more tomorrow.

Posted
1 hour ago, CDW said:

There are variables. One involves how soon the cool jet stream impacts the system turn to a more southerly track that takes it partially over the Yucatan Peninsula. If that happens it could significantly change the storm intensity as it makes a final approach to the west coast of Fla.

we will know more tomorrow.

Well the Jetstream as predicted for midnight tonight....

screenshot_13.png.c32aff74e1722841e771927ef2e4a573.png

 

Heading straight for the northern gulf coast of Florida... It may shift in the next few days, but that is dictating the track at the present... It's acting like a huge vacuum pulling at and intensifying the low pressure system...

 

If it's not a cat 5, it will be...


EVERYONE STAY SAFE... PLEASE...

Current Build: F-86F-30 Sabre by Egilman - Kinetic - 1/32nd scale

In the Garage: East Bound & Down, Building a Smokey & the Bandit Kenworth Rig in 1/25th scale

Completed: M8A1 HST  1930 Packard Boattail Speedster  M1A1 75mm Pack Howitzer  F-4J Phantom II Bell H-13's P-51B/C

Temporary Suspension: USS Gwin DD-433  F-104C Starfighter "Blue Jay Four" 1/32nd Scale

Terminated Build: F-104C Starfighter

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:

"Relish Today, Ketchup Tomorrow"

Posted
1 hour ago, Egilman said:

Well the Jetstream as predicted for midnight tonight....

screenshot_13.png.c32aff74e1722841e771927ef2e4a573.png

 

Heading straight for the northern gulf coast of Florida... It may shift in the next few days, but that is dictating the track at the present... It's acting like a huge vacuum pulling at and intensifying the low pressure system...

 

If it's not a cat 5, it will be...


EVERYONE STAY SAFE... PLEASE...

This is the meteorologist I follow. Opinions from experts vary. The prediction models all vary, too.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, CDW said:

There are variables. One involves how soon the cool jet stream impacts the system turn to a more southerly track that takes it partially over the Yucatan Peninsula. If that happens it could significantly change the storm intensity as it makes a final approach to the west coast of Fla.

we will know more tomorrow.

Well the models are tightly clustered wobbles in the end run matter;)

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Posted
4 hours ago, king derelict said:

I just put up all the south and westerly facing shutters. I’d forgotten how much stuff I had piled on them in the garage. I think we are going to be a sideshow compared with the west coast unless it drifts south. Stay safe everyone.

alan

You stay safe aswel  Alan.

 

OC.

Current builds  


28mm  Battle of Waterloo   attack on La Haye Saint   Diorama.

1/700  HMS Hood   Flyhawk   with  PE, Resin  and Wood Decking.

 

 

 

Completed works.

 

Dragon 1/700 HMS Edinburgh type 42 batch 3 Destroyer plastic.

HMS Warspite Academy 1/350 plastic kit and wem parts.

HMS Trafalgar Airfix 1/350 submarine  plastic.

Black Pearl  1/72  Revell   with  pirate crew.

Revell  1/48  Mosquito  B IV

Eduard  1/48  Spitfire IX

ICM    1/48   Seafire Mk.III   Special Conversion

1/48  Kinetic  Sea Harrier  FRS1

Posted
36 minutes ago, Old Collingwood said:

You stay safe aswel  Alan.

 

OC.

Thank you OC. I’ll finish the shutters tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile it’s nice to have a bit of light. It’s been about three years since I huffed the panels round the house from the garage. Someone has been adding weight to the sliding door panels in the meantime. Maybe I should get serious about accordion shutters.

Hobe sound now has a coastal flood warning but so far we seem to be just that little bit higher than nearer the beach.

Looking in the freezer to choose something expensive to eat for dinner in case we lose power in a big way 

stay safe all

alan

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, CDW said:

This is the meteorologist I follow. Opinions from experts vary. The prediction models all vary, too.

Yep, they always do, but I like his presentation, he covers the probabilities without sugarcoating it... I hope it stays south so it weaken as much as it can.... (good link Thanks, I'll hang on to that one) The equatorial easterlies are trying to push it north, but that westerly jetstream is predicted to strengthen over the next 24 hours which will help greatly in holding it to the south....

 

But all the models are showing a solid central Florida hit here the only question is how strong a hit...

 

Whatever you do my friend, STAY SAFE....

Edited by Egilman

Current Build: F-86F-30 Sabre by Egilman - Kinetic - 1/32nd scale

In the Garage: East Bound & Down, Building a Smokey & the Bandit Kenworth Rig in 1/25th scale

Completed: M8A1 HST  1930 Packard Boattail Speedster  M1A1 75mm Pack Howitzer  F-4J Phantom II Bell H-13's P-51B/C

Temporary Suspension: USS Gwin DD-433  F-104C Starfighter "Blue Jay Four" 1/32nd Scale

Terminated Build: F-104C Starfighter

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:

"Relish Today, Ketchup Tomorrow"

Posted
24 minutes ago, Egilman said:

Yep, they always do, but I like his presentation, he covers the probabilities without sugarcoating it... I hope it stays south so it weaken as much as it can.... (good link Thanks, I'll hang on to that one) The equatorial easterlies are trying to push it north, but that westerly jetstream is predicted to strengthen over the next 24 hours which will help greatly in holding it to the south....

 

But all the models are showing a solid central Florida hit here the only question is how strong a hit...

 

Whatever you do my friend, STAY SAFE....

Prayers   for  Everyone  over  the pond,  hope  it  turns  out less  of an impact  and  Everyone  stays  safe  and  impacted the  least.

 

OC.

Current builds  


28mm  Battle of Waterloo   attack on La Haye Saint   Diorama.

1/700  HMS Hood   Flyhawk   with  PE, Resin  and Wood Decking.

 

 

 

Completed works.

 

Dragon 1/700 HMS Edinburgh type 42 batch 3 Destroyer plastic.

HMS Warspite Academy 1/350 plastic kit and wem parts.

HMS Trafalgar Airfix 1/350 submarine  plastic.

Black Pearl  1/72  Revell   with  pirate crew.

Revell  1/48  Mosquito  B IV

Eduard  1/48  Spitfire IX

ICM    1/48   Seafire Mk.III   Special Conversion

1/48  Kinetic  Sea Harrier  FRS1

Posted

This is what it looked like yesterday on Interstate 75, 15 miles north of Tampa. All the people trying to evacuate. I didn't see any gas stations today who have gasoline in Tampa. I filled all my tanks up this past Saturday. No telling when gas stations might get fuel again, but it could be many days, depending on how much debris the hurricane causes.

462356540_1227210971939597_4605537238244642940_n.jpg

Posted (edited)

I think I'll take this over that. A Buffalo Lake Effect 6 footer is preferableIMG_8757.JPG.70254cc2ce67c31a31464f4f30979f81.jpeg.jpg.ca5bc2ba5ef8fc7b337c8f10a90559cf.jpgpost-13502-0-89703700-1425679734_thumb.jpg.64918155e9cdee873b371a99d0728272.jpgIMG_8743.JPG.cc6d4e44ef5b7fbe7787a32d13118686.jpeg.jpg.54caa9282748c4cbb1cadb589ab95714.jpg

Kidding aside, everyone stay safe. Prayers are with you.

Edited by Jack12477
Posted

I just read a report that 180 mph is the current average windspeed... If true this one is going to be a real disaster...

Current Build: F-86F-30 Sabre by Egilman - Kinetic - 1/32nd scale

In the Garage: East Bound & Down, Building a Smokey & the Bandit Kenworth Rig in 1/25th scale

Completed: M8A1 HST  1930 Packard Boattail Speedster  M1A1 75mm Pack Howitzer  F-4J Phantom II Bell H-13's P-51B/C

Temporary Suspension: USS Gwin DD-433  F-104C Starfighter "Blue Jay Four" 1/32nd Scale

Terminated Build: F-104C Starfighter

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:

"Relish Today, Ketchup Tomorrow"

Posted

Stay safe Craig! I'm not liking the reports we're seeing up here ! This thing seems to be wobbling all over the place. 

Posted

The wind shear has to be out of this world!!! your already getting hammered and the hurricane hasn't even landed yet... Damn...

Current Build: F-86F-30 Sabre by Egilman - Kinetic - 1/32nd scale

In the Garage: East Bound & Down, Building a Smokey & the Bandit Kenworth Rig in 1/25th scale

Completed: M8A1 HST  1930 Packard Boattail Speedster  M1A1 75mm Pack Howitzer  F-4J Phantom II Bell H-13's P-51B/C

Temporary Suspension: USS Gwin DD-433  F-104C Starfighter "Blue Jay Four" 1/32nd Scale

Terminated Build: F-104C Starfighter

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:

"Relish Today, Ketchup Tomorrow"

Posted

Dang! The storm is over Cape Canaveral at 5 AM. That's a fast mover. But it's also dumping massive rainfall. Hopes and prayers out for all in it's path.

Ken

Started: MS Bounty Longboat,

On Hold:  Heinkel USS Choctaw paper

Down the road: Shipyard HMC Alert 1/96 paper, Mamoli Constitution Cross, MS USN Picket Boat #1

Scratchbuild: Echo Cross Section

 

Member Nautical Research Guild

Posted

We made it through a long night safely. The wind was loud and constant for hours. Not sure of wind speeds but don’t doubt gusts exceeding 100 mph. My wife hated the noise of it. An unsettling whistle of sorts. First light revealed limbs down all over the place. Some shingles blown off the roof but no leaks. Privacy fence blown down, about 300 feet of it. Power is out. Running my generator. Chain sawed large limbs into smaller pieces drug it out to the roadside. Took a ride on the side by side around the neighborhood. Trees down all over the place. Localized flooding. Saw damaged homes everywhere. Lots of people out clearing their debris. Everyone is cleaning up already.

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Posted

Same as  Jack  -  good  to  know  you guys  are safe,   did   you see  the  Purple  sky   people  have been  talking about.

 

OC.

Current builds  


28mm  Battle of Waterloo   attack on La Haye Saint   Diorama.

1/700  HMS Hood   Flyhawk   with  PE, Resin  and Wood Decking.

 

 

 

Completed works.

 

Dragon 1/700 HMS Edinburgh type 42 batch 3 Destroyer plastic.

HMS Warspite Academy 1/350 plastic kit and wem parts.

HMS Trafalgar Airfix 1/350 submarine  plastic.

Black Pearl  1/72  Revell   with  pirate crew.

Revell  1/48  Mosquito  B IV

Eduard  1/48  Spitfire IX

ICM    1/48   Seafire Mk.III   Special Conversion

1/48  Kinetic  Sea Harrier  FRS1

Posted

Glad to see you and yours survived the night, Craig.

 

It'll be a slow recovery. We still have folks without power, roads getting cleared or patched. The local supermarket is bare; their warehouse was underwater in Swanannoa, a very hard hit area.

Ken

Started: MS Bounty Longboat,

On Hold:  Heinkel USS Choctaw paper

Down the road: Shipyard HMC Alert 1/96 paper, Mamoli Constitution Cross, MS USN Picket Boat #1

Scratchbuild: Echo Cross Section

 

Member Nautical Research Guild

Posted

Glad you came through relatively unscathed Craig.  I'm sure it must have been a frightening period of time.  

 

Shame about the beautiful (live oak?) tree that was uprooted.  It's amazing what big storms can do.  When the derecho (straight line winds) hit the DC area a decade ago, some really massive oaks all over the area were similarly uprooted.  And I think our winds were only 60-80mph.

Mike

 

Current Wooden builds:  Amati/Victory Pegasus  MS Charles W. Morgan  Euromodel La Renommèe  

 

Plastic builds:    Hs129B-2 1/48  SB2U-1 Vindicator 1/48  Five Star Yaeyama 1/700  Pit Road Asashio and Akashi 1/700 diorama  Walrus 1/48 and Albatross 1/700  Special Hobby Buffalo 1/32   IJN Notoro 1/700  Akitsu Maru 1/700

 

Completed builds :  Caldercraft Brig Badger   Amati Hannah - Ship in Bottle  Pit Road Hatsuzakura 1/700   Hasegawa Shimakaze 1:350

F4B-4 and P-6E 1/72  Accurate Miniatures F3F-1/F3F-2 1/48  Tamiya F4F-4 Wildcat built as FM-1 1/48  Special Hobby Buffalo 1/48  Eduard Sikorsky JRS-1 1/72

Citroen 2CV 1/24 - Airfix and Tamiya  Entex Morgan 3-wheeler 1/16

 

Terminated build:  HMS Lyme (based on Corel Unicorn)  

 

On the shelf:  Euromodel Friedrich Wilhelm zu Pferde; Caldercraft Victory; too many plastic ship, plane and car kits

 

Future potential scratch builds:  HMS Lyme (from NMM plans); Le Gros Ventre (from Ancre monographs), Dutch ship from Ab Hoving book, HMS Sussex from McCardle book, Philadelphia gunboat (Smithsonian plans)

Posted
1 hour ago, Jack12477 said:

Has anyone heard from our colleagues on Florida's east coast? How they are ? 

I have not heard yet but lots of them were hit hard. Power is down and gasoline almost impossible to come by around here. It will not start getting here until Monday and it will be spotty for a while. 
My advice to my friends: where ever you are, be prepared to make it/survive on your own for at least a month. Longer if possible. If you assume it’s an automatic that the government or some random NGA is going to come to your aid, you may be sadly mistaken.

Posted

I got on line and filed with FEMA and was paid the $750. And it's not a loam, as some rumors had it. Had a buddy file for the $600 for a generator. His blew a cylinder out the side of the motor. It was 20+ years old. That was denied. But yeah, I haven't seen much FEMA presence. Mostly our churches and home grown shelters and food banks. The Army Guard has been lifting in supplies to areas cut off by the destroyed bridges. We're pretty much on our own. 😒

Ken

Started: MS Bounty Longboat,

On Hold:  Heinkel USS Choctaw paper

Down the road: Shipyard HMC Alert 1/96 paper, Mamoli Constitution Cross, MS USN Picket Boat #1

Scratchbuild: Echo Cross Section

 

Member Nautical Research Guild

Posted
46 minutes ago, Canute said:

We're pretty much on our own. 😒

My dear old dad taught us these priorities: First is family, even your cousins. Second was your church, then third your neighbors. He taught that care and support for these institutions was mandatory, not optional. Times like these emphasize the importance of these time proven principles. 

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